by Scott R. Bowers
Director of Government and Cooperative Relations
As we turn the opening pages of this politically important year, I wanted to offer a glimpse into what electric cooperatives and consumers may encounter in 2012.
With all of the media attention, talk and overall noise last year over things like raising the federal debt ceiling, right-to-work legislation, potential government shutdowns, legislative walk-outs, the flavor-of-the-week Republican presidential candidates, the Occupy movement, the Tea Party, political scandals, etc …, you must be wondering if 2012 will be better or worse. I don’t profess to be a fortune teller, but if the first few weeks of the new year are any predictor, I wouldn’t hold my breath for a quick restoration of civility, diplomacy, or even some semblance of common sense to our political environment any time soon.
When the Indiana General Assembly convened Jan. 3, everyone felt déjà vu as the issue of right-to-work dominated from the outset again. Unlike in 2011, when the Democrat members of the Indiana House staged a walkout and spent five weeks in Illinois in protest of the right-to-work bill, House Democrats have stuck around the Statehouse and utilized different procedural and strategic tactics to voice their opposition to right-to-work legislation. As expected, right-to-work has been THE hot issue at the Statehouse. Should things play out as speculated, a vote and likely passage of right-to-work may have occurred by the time you read this.
In addition to some of the contentious issues facing the Indiana General Assembly and Congress, another dynamic that will come into play in this year’s elections is redistricting. After the census is taken every decade, the state Legislature is required by law to redraw the congressional, state representative and state senate districts in the state.
While many states in the Midwest lost congressional seats, Indiana was fortunate to keep the same nine seats, as it had the previous decade. With four freshmen members of Congress, two open seats and two contested Republican primary fights, the composition of Indiana’s congressional delegation could look very different after Nov. 6. In addition to the congressional races, a tense campaign is being waged between U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. To add further intrigue to the race, Second District Rep. Joe Donnelly is unopposed for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate and will face the winner of the Republican primary this fall.
Not to be outdone by their colleagues at the federal level, the campaigns for state legislative seats will be heavily contested in 2012. Currently, there are 60 Republican and 40 Democratic state representatives and 37 Republican and 13 Democratic state senators. With the new districts, all 100 of the state representative seats and half (25) of the state Senate seats will be up this year. Adding to the situation, the new legislative maps approved in 2011 created several instances where incumbent legislators would face off in primary fights. There were a number of new open seats where there isn’t an incumbent, and several more instances where incumbents will face each other in the general election.
The potential change within the political landscape of the General Assembly could be tremendous. But the governor’s race will be front and center in 2012 due to the fact that Gov. Daniels is barred by state law from seeking a third term. While the Republican candidate won’t be determined until after the May primary in which Rep. Mike Pence is running against businessman Jim Wallace, the Democratic candidate appears to be set with former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg. If things turn out the way they are expected, with Pence facing off against Gregg in the fall, one thing’s for certain — the debates should be great political theater.
Last, but not least, 2012 is a presidential election year. President Obama will again be the Democratic nominee. At this point it is still anyone’s guess as to who will be the Republican nominee to face Obama in the fall. Based on the first few caucus and primary elections, I should probably list Mitt Romney at the Republican nominee, but I’ll do it in pencil next to the crossed-out names of past Republican presidential front runners such as Bachmann, Gingrich, Cain, and Perry. We’ll just consider it “to be determined” and see if the nomination is still in play when the Republican primary occurs in Indiana May 8.
As you can see, politics in Indiana will again be a dominant issue throughout 2012 and it has the potential to be either anything but dull or extremely obnoxious depending on your world view. Whether you are a political junkie, someone who absolutely loathes politics, or at some point in between, the outcome of these elections could have a tremendous impact on charting the course for our country and state for the next decade. That’s why our challenge across Indiana in 2012 is to assist, educate, and encourage our co-op consumers to make their voices heard on the issues important to our industry.
Scott R. Bowers is director of government and cooperative relations for Indiana Statewide Association of Rural Electric Cooperatives, Inc.